An Empirical Analysis of Growth and Instability in Brinjal Production and Prices: A Time-Series Approach

Abstract

Brinjal (Solanum melongena L.) is an important vegetable crop in India, contributing significantly to food security, farm income, and agricultural sustainability. Understanding long-term trends in production and market prices is essential for informed policy formulation and efficient supply chain management. This study examines trends in its production, area, and yield in India (1978–2023) using FAOSTAT data from 1978 to 2023. The Compound Annual Growth Rates is 2.29% for cultivation area, 4.26% for production, and 1.92% for yield, respectively. These results reflect a stable agricultural environment for brinjal, with low volatility across these parameters. The study looks at trends in brinjal prices from 2016 to 2024 in the Chakdah market in West Bengal's Nadia District. The overall price CAGR is 3.97%; however, quarterly analysis reveals significant fluctuations: the second quarter (Q2, April–June) exhibits the highest CAGR at 16.13%, aligning with the peak harvest and the onset of the southwest monsoon, which brings optimal rainfall and temperatures enhancing yields, stabilising supply, and raising prices. Conversely, the fourth quarter (Q4, Oct–Dec) records the lowest CAGR at 6.80%, as winter and post-monsoon conditions diminish supply and reduce demand, leading to lower prices. Price instability, measured by the Cuddy–Della Valle Instability Index, is moderate in Q1, Q2 and Q4 due to climatic variability, seasonal production cycles, supply chain constraints, market dynamics, and agricultural practices, and Q3 shows low instability. Steady supply and price factors favour consistent commodity arrivals due to a stable production cycle. Price forecasts for 2025–2026 show a steady rise, despite seasonal and market fluctuations. Findings suggest revising pricing policies, boosting value addition, storage, and market diversification to strengthen brinjal production and efficiency.