Analyzing Price Dynamics and Instability in the Soybean Market of Gautampura: A Decadal Analysis

Abstract

Soybean stands as a cornerstone of global agriculture, renowned for its versatility, economic value, and pivotal role in both food and feed industries. This study examined the decade-long trends in soybean price dynamics at the Gautampura market in Madhya Pradesh, India, from 2014 to 2023. The research aim to analyze the price trend and instability of soybean in the Gautampura using methods such as Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) and the Cuddy-Della Valle Instability Index (CDVI), the research reveals a gradual 0.672 per cent CAGR in soybean prices over the study period, punctuated by seasonal variations. Quarterly analyses further highlight varying growth rates, with Q4 consistently demonstrating the highest growth, likely driven by harvest cycles and market demand fluctuations. Despite this growth trend, the market exhibits significant price instability, underscored by a CDVI of 21.65, influenced by climatic factors, market dynamics, and policy changes. The forecasted prices indicate a steady upward trajectory from 2024 to 2025, aligning with historical data and suggesting potential opportunities amidst challenges in managing price volatility. This research provides valuable insights for stakeholders aiming to navigate the evolving soybean market dynamics effectively. Highlights: • The CAGR for soybean prices was found to be 0.672 per cent over the study period. Quarterly analyses reveal varying growth rates across the year 2014 to 2023. • Its mainly focuses the instability and forecast pattern of Soybean in Gautampura, Madhya Pradesh.