Environmental Quality and Health Status in Nigeria: A Quantitative Analysis Using the Load Capacity Factor Approach

Abstract

Background: Environmental sustainability is increasingly recognised as a critical determinant of public health, particularly in developing nations where ecological degradation and fragile healthcare systems converge. Objectives: This study investigates the long-run impact of the Load Capacity Factor (LCF)—a composite metric of environmental quality—on population health outcomes in Nigeria. Methodology: The study analyses the effects of LCF on life expectancy at birth and infant mortality, while controlling for health expenditure, GDP per capita, population size, and renewable energy consumption, using annual time-series data from 1990 to 2024. The empirical framework employs the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) estimator, which addresses endogeneity and serial correlation in cointegrated series. Key Findings: Contrary to conventional expectations, our findings reveal that improvements in the Load Capacity Factor are associated with a statistically significant reduction in life expectancy and a significant increase in infant mortality. These counterintuitive results suggest that aggregate environmental gains in Nigeria have not translated into better health outcomes, likely due to persistent structural bottlenecks, including weak healthcare infrastructure, socioeconomic disparities, localised pollution hotspots, and governance deficits. Notably, renewable energy consumption shows a positive and statistically significant association on life expectancy, underscoring the health co-benefits of transitioning to cleaner energy sources. Policy Implications: The findings underscore the imperative for integrated policy frameworks that simultaneously advance environmental sustainability, healthcare system strengthening, effective environmental governance, renewable energy adoption, and inclusive economic growth. These insights offer actionable evidence for policymakers aiming to achieve Sustainable Development Goals 3 (Good Health and Well-being) and 13 (Climate Action) through coordinated cross-sectoral interventions.