Industrial Sector Decarbonization Pathways for Cement, Iron and Steel, and Chemical Industries in Nigeria

Abstract

Nigeria's cement, iron and steel, and chemical industries account for a substantial share of the country's industrial energy use. This study applies the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) to project industrial energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions to 2060 under four scenarios: a Baseline reflecting current trends; a Realistic Scenario based on existing policy commitments; a Light-Fossil (LF) pathway; and a Green-Fuel (GF) pathway assuming widespread adoption of carbon capture and storage (CCS), electric arc furnaces, and hydrogen. The three subsectors respond differently to the same assumptions. Cement shows the widest range of outcomes: energy demand falls by 61%, from 60.5 million gigajoules (GJ) in 2015 to 23.55 million GJ in 2060, under the GF pathway, but rises by 522% to 376.78 million GJ under the Realistic Scenario, which assumes continued reliance on conventional clinker production. The chemical sector is the most responsive to fuel switching, with demand falling by 79.6% under GF conditions, compared with a 259% rise in the Baseline. Iron and steel are an outlier: even under GF assumptions, energy demand rises by approximately 13% to 36.60 million GJ by 2060 because electrification and hydrogen-based direct-reduction routes change the source of energy rather than eliminate the need for it. These results indicate that a uniform decarbonisation policy is unlikely to serve Nigeria's industrial sector effectively. Cement decarbonisation depends on CCS deployment and clinker substitution, chemical-sector decarbonisation on electrification and green-hydrogen feedstocks, and iron and steel decarbonisation on a slower, technology-led transition supported by a more reliable grid. The findings provide a sector-differentiated basis for prioritising investment and policy under Nigeria's Energy Transition Plan and its 2060 net-zero target.