Returns to Wheat Research, Varietal Adoption and Turnover Rates and Wheat Production Risks in Kenya

Abstract

A lot of public funds have been used for investment in wheat research in Kenya. The concern is whether it is worthwhile to continue investing. The problem is there is no information on what returns to investments have been achieved to guide the continued allocation of resources to wheat research. To address this problem, this paper seeks to estimate returns to wheat research investments in Kenya, and the wheat varietal adoption and turnover rates that influence it. The Benefit-Cost Analysis (BCA) model was applied to estimate the returns to wheat research, in terms of three indicators: Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR), Net Present Value (NPV), and Internal Rate of Return (IRR). Adoption index was used to estimate wheat varietal adoption rates (VAR). The area-weighted average variety age (WAVA) was used to estimate the varietal turnover rate (VTR). The Five-Point Likert scale model was used in assessing production risks. A field survey was used for data collection in selected wheat-producing Counties of Kenya. The results generated were a BCR of 1.47, an NPV of 23.31 million Kenya Shillings, an IRR of 41%. The VAR was 42% and VTR was 15.65 years. The main wheat production risks were output price fluctuations, seed availability, pests, and diseases in that order of ranking.  In conclusion, return on investments in wheat research is positive, though relatively low compared to other countries, largely due to low varietal adoption and turnover rates and prevalence of high production risks. The recommendation is that to improve returns to wheat research in Kenya, varietal adoption and turnover rates should be improved and production risks should be minimized or eliminated.