Spatial Assessment of Inland Water Resources and Aquaculture Development Potential in Nigeria’s Six Geopolitical Zones

Abstract

This study assessed the spatial relationship between inland water resources, bioclimatic conditions, and aquaculture development across Nigeria's six geopolitical zones. Geospatial datasets from the Joint Research Centre Global Surface Water, Global Mangrove Watch, WorldClim, administrative boundaries, and national aquaculture records were integrated in QGIS and standardised to WGS 84 / UTM Zone 32N. Hydrological features were topologically corrected, fragmented into single-part polygons, and aggregated by geopolitical zone, while zonal climate statistics and aquaculture production indicators were compared using the Inland Water Dependency Index, Permanent Water Dependency Index, and Total Aquaculture Density Index. Marked regional differences were observed. The South South had the largest inland-water and wetland resources and the highest average aquaculture production (117,916 Mt), whereas the North Central contained the largest permanent-water area (2,199.37 km²) but recorded a lower average production of 58,681 Mt. The South East and South West showed the highest aquaculture density relative to available water resources, while the North East recorded the lowest Total Aquaculture Density Index (6.02). Northern zones were characterised by greater thermal variability and pronounced dry-season precipitation deficits, whereas southern zones had higher rainfall and more extensive aquatic environments. Overall, the findings indicate that aquaculture development is spatially uneven and reflects interactions among water availability, climate, production infrastructure, and competing resource uses. The framework provides a reproducible basis for regionally differentiated aquaculture planning in Nigeria.