Assessment and Forecasting of Fisheries Production in Odisha, India: Evidence from Chilika Lake

Abstract

India's fisheries sector has transformed into a major commercial activity, contributing significantly to livelihoods and the economy, with Odisha emerging as a leading state in fish production. Chilika Lake, a vital aquatic ecosystem, supports thousands of fisherfolk and contributes substantially to Odisha's fish economy. This study examines the fish economy of Odisha with special reference to Chilika Lake, focusing on production trends, species composition, livelihood dependence, and export relevance. Using a combination of primary field survey data and secondary time-series data, the analysis covers inland and marine fisheries in Odisha as well as fish, shrimp, and crab production in Chilika Lake. Descriptive statistics and trend analysis are complemented by econometric techniques, including the Augmented Dickey–Fuller unit root test and ARIMA modelling, to evaluate production dynamics and generate short-term forecasts. The results indicate sustained and robust growth in inland fisheries in Odisha, while fisheries production in Chilika Lake exhibits temporal fluctuations with persistent economic significance, particularly from fish and shrimp resources. The econometric evidence confirms non-stationarity at levels and stationarity after first differencing, validating the use of ARIMA-based forecasting. The findings highlight the critical role of sustainable fisheries management, effective regulation of aquaculture practices, and targeted policy interventions to enhance livelihood security, strengthen export performance, and ensure long-term ecological sustainability of the Chilika Lake wetland ecosystem.