Demographic Factors Associated with Dengue in Saint Lucia

Abstract

Aims: To identify demographic variables associated with dengue in Saint Lucia. Study Design:  Retrospective quasi experimental study of secondary data. Place and Duration of Study: Data was accessed from the Ministry of Health Saint Lucia, the Saint Lucia Tourism Authority and the Central Statistics Office Saint Lucia, 2011-2017. Methodology: This study included 1869 cases tested for dengue between 2011 and 2017 identified through regular surveillance in Saint Lucia. There were 1310 confirmed cases, of which 667 were male and 643 were female. Data on education, employment, and unemployment levels, population density, hospital access and tourist arrivals were accessed from local Saint Lucian agencies to determine their relationships with the occurrence of dengue. Results: The largest prevalence of dengue from the sample was found in the district of Castries (29.6%) and 25% of the cases occurring in the adult group (19-44). It was found that over 40 % of the dengue cases occurred in the population when between 12500 to 14000 persons (medium level) had tertiary education. Logistic regression of the data allowed the demonstration of strong significant relationships between age, the 13-18-year age group (P<.001, OR 4.091 [CI 2.628-6.369]) and tertiary education (P<.001, OR 4.785 [CI 2.896- 7.905]) and occurrence of dengue. Conclusion: Age and education, along with other variables such as location, tourist visitor arrival, employment status, and population density were found to be associated with dengue in Saint Lucia. Further research is warranted to better characterize these relationships and understand how they could be used to develop predictive models for use in public health prevention programmes.