From Tremors to Threats: A Systematic Review of Nigeria’s Earthquake Vulnerability, Urban Exposure and Governance Readiness (1990-2025)

Abstract

Earthquake risk in Nigeria has historically been underestimated, yet recurrent tremors over the past decades reveal emerging vulnerabilities that demand systematic attention. This review synthesizes evidence of seismic vulnerability in Nigeria between 1990 and 2025, with emphasis on hazard patterns, urban exposure, socio-economic drivers, and governance frameworks. Aim: To synthesize evidence of seismic vulnerability in Nigeria (1990-2025), examining hazard patterns, urban exposure, socio-economic factors, and governance frameworks. Study Design: Systematic review guided by PRISMA. Place and Duration of Study: Nigeria; literature published between 1990 and 2025. Methodology: Guided by PRISMA standards, ≈200 records were initially identified from multidisciplinary databases and institutional repositories. After screening and eligibility checks, 61 studies were retained and thematically coded across four domains: seismic hazard characterization, urban and infrastructural exposure, socio-economic vulnerability, and policy/governance. Comparative insights were drawn from African and global contexts, supported by Geographic Information System (GIS) overlays. Results: Findings show seismic hotspots in southwestern cities (Ibadan, Akure), central hubs (Abuja, Kaduna), and southern zones (Bayelsa, Edo). Isolated tremors in Bauchi, Maiduguri, and Enugu highlight under-monitored risks. Most events are low-magnitude, yet impacts are amplified by rapid urbanization, fragile building stock, weak enforcement of codes, and limited preparedness. Comparative insights from East Africa, Brazil, and Nepal emphasize how governance and community resilience are as critical as geophysical hazards. Conclusion: Nigeria’s seismic risk, though low frequency, is significant due to compounded vulnerabilities. Strengthening monitoring networks, embedding hazard-informed urban planning, enforcing building codes, and promoting community preparedness are urgent priorities. Future research should integrate advanced tools such as GeoAI and remote sensing for high-resolution hazard modeling and multi-scalar vulnerability mapping.