Potential Implications of Extreme Rainfall Variability on Ground Traffic over Douala City of Cameroon

Abstract

This present work investigates the potential implications of extreme rainfall variability on ground traffic over Douala city using the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) model during the wet season, June-September 2020. Using this model, initialised and bounded for the forecast is derived from the hybrid GFS analysis; the rainfall episode was successfully simulated. The simulated precipitations have been compared favorably to the observation satellites in terms of spatial and total accumulated amounts. This model can improve significantly throughout the rainy seasons to successfully predict such disasters in the region and in Cameroon. In addition, the satellite images exhibit that there was precipitation thick on the territory of Cameroon and in particular Douala city and its surroundings. For the day of August 21, 2020, for example, a rainfall cumul of between 25 and 50 mm with a probability of ranging from 40 to 60% by the GEFS forecast model over more than half a day is the origin of the floods. The results show that extreme rainfall variability significantly disturbs land traffic in Douala city. They would help improve accident prevention and road transportation infrastructure caused by extreme events in this city.