Structural Breaks, Growth and Instability Test in Onion Cultivation: A Case of Saurashtra Region of Gujarat

Abstract

Onion is one of the most important commercial vegetable crops grown in India. Among the bulb crops onion is the only member grown to a great extent in this country. The historical data on area, production and yield of onion from Gujarat were collected for 26 years from the year 1992-93 to 2017-2018 and analysis was carried out using compound growth rate, Cuddy- Della Vella index and Structural break analysis (Chow test). This study was conducted on onion cultivation in Gujarat for the study period of 1992-93 to 2017-18. To capture the impact of NHM (National Horticulture Mission), the study period was re-categorized into: Pre- NHM Period (1992-93 to 2004-05); Post- NHM Period (2005-06 to 2017-18) and Overall Period (1992-93 to 2017-18). Major onion producing districts of Gujarat were selected for analysis. In case of growth rate and instability the yield was showed negative during study period so, more emphasis should be given to enhance the yield level with the help of innovations and technology in onion cultivation. structural break points plays a vital role regarding the forecasting purpose. For, structural break chow test was carried out, the results revealed that occur of structural break in particular district due to area and yield components used in this study.