The Impact of Consumer Confidence on Buying Behavior in Türkiye: A Time-Series Analysis

Abstract

Consumer confidence influences household spending behavior and may affect the growth of online and distance retail activity in Türkiye. This study examines the short-run and long-run relationship between the Consumer Confidence Index and retail sales via mail orders and internet using monthly TurkStat data.This study examines the relationship between consumer confidence and online and distance retail activity in Türkiye using monthly secondary data from the Turkish Statistical Institute for the period 2012–2022. The analysis focuses on the Consumer Confidence Index and the Retail Sales Volume Index via Mail Orders and Internet. A quantitative time-series approach was applied, including stationarity tests, short-run Ordinary Least Squares models based on transformed stationary variables, and an additional level-based Autoregressive Distributed Lag (1,1)-style long-run check. The short-run results did not indicate a statistically significant relationship between monthly changes in consumer confidence and changes in online and distance retail sales, either contemporaneously or with a one-month lag. The long-run check suggested possible evidence of a longer-term association; however, this result was interpreted cautiously due to diagnostic limitations and the bivariate structure of the model. The findings suggest that consumer confidence may not immediately predict online and distance retail activity in Türkiye, but it may still serve as a broader contextual indicator for understanding longer-term changes in consumer demand. The study contributes by focusing specifically on online and distance retail rather than aggregate retail trade.